Friday, March 20, 2009

Jeter And His 3,000 Hit




Tyler Hissy of MVN.com penned an interesting column yesterday about the probability of Yankee living legend Derek Jeter reaching the 3,000 hit plateau in pinstripes. And while I'm inclined to agree his defensive abilities have fallen off in the last few years, he's got certain intangibles that make up for those shortcomings and one of them is his offensive production.

I'm wondering what a switch to second base would be like, if Cano would make that adjustment, or even if it's worth doing. As long as his legs are still healthy, Jeter in left field would be amusing, though I'm not sure his legacy deserves that. But does he deserve to be a utility player in a Yanks uniform or pursue three stacks in another uniform? I'm not sure he'd want to go out like that.

Read the entire article here. Some snippets:

..."Jeter, as cool as he looks with his jump throws from the hole, simply lets too many balls to his left and right side that should be converted into outs go in for base hits, thus inflating the ERAs of every New York pitcher. Objectively, he has been hurting the Yankees, whose terrible defensive efficiency ratings as of late are not just a coincidence, while playing such an important up-the-middle position so poorly. The casual fan has a mental model of Jeter making exceptional defensive plays burned into their brain, from his in-the-stands grab against the Boston Red Sox to the infamous ball flip to catcher Jorge Posada to save a huge playoff game against the Oakland A's.

Mental models, however, are driven by biased, subjective thought processes, one or a few isolated images. Objective data, on the other hand, simply does not lie, nor does it give bonus points to certain players for perceived likeability or star appeal. Essentially, there is absolutely no conspiracy against Jeter because he used to date Jessica Biel and those "basement-dwelling stat heads" who frequently deride his defense only can do so in their dreams.

Statistical analysts do not call him Past-A-Diving Jeter for their own amusement.

Also, while advanced defensive statistics have some flaws, a number of scouts agree with the conclusions drawn in the statistical community. Many scouts have also documented how Jeter has difficulty getting to balls a few steps to his left or right; it would be difficult for a trained talent evaluator, or anyone looking for it on the YES! Network, not to notice.

Defensive deficiencies aside, the soon-to-35-year-old middle infielder has been a productive hitter since winning the Rookie of the Year and helping the Yankees to the World Series all the way back in 1996. He has put up a career line of .316/.387/.458 with a 120 OPS+ in 8,025 at-bats over 14 seasons. Not too many shortstops can boast that kind of an offensive resume, and, though he is a perhaps a bit overrated, there is no denying what he has accomplished with a bat in his hands--especially for a shortstop, even one who is so limited defensively. Despite his shortcomings with the glove, he has also been quite valuable overall; he has produced the following value wins totals (accounting for defense, offense and positional factors) since 2004, respectively: 5.0, 4.5, 6.4, 3.7, 3.7. While he has been on the wrong side of the dollars earned/dollars made chart, for the most part, he has been an excellent player who should not be faulted for accepted such an enormous amount of money from the Steinbrenner fortune."

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